Chase teams are as follows:
*** That's our kinda Lovin' Oven!
Broke the IL border at 9:05 am.
As we continued south into Missouri, we lose our moisture and the rest of the thunderstorm activity.
2:00 pm: Tornado warnings for SE Missouri have been downgraded. The current Day II is hinting at the possibility of large hail and damaging wind in the panhandle region of West Texas. The EMWIN system is not functioning correctly, but the problem will be handled later. As we continue our journey, Massura locks his keys in the trunk at lunch. This sets the tone for the rest of the day. Many meaningless stops.
After a long day of dealing with locking keys in trunks, stops in little towns here and there, it is finally morning, the models have been looked at, and the discussions have been read. After last-night's convection in far south Texas, the low-level moisture is sucked up. Since we are in Claremore, OK and the low-level moisture return isn't expected until late tonight, into tomorrow in far Western Texas and Eastern New Mexico, today is expected to be a relocation day to possibly get there. The long-range outlook is forecasting the moisture to return with the development of a lee cyclone. Some discussions are hinting at a severe weather outbreak in Kansas in the next few days.
The plan for today is to head down to Norman to visit NSSL and Storm Prediction Center. Along the way there, we should encounter mass damage from the recent tornado outbreak. This should put into perspective the destructive nature of the beast that we all would love to observe. We must remember to respect life and thank those above for our fortune. After visiting SPC, we are to continue toward extreme western Texas. We would like to thank the guys at NSSL and SPC for allowing us to tour a portion of their offices. It was really nice to see the equipment that they have available to them. In addition, it was really nice to hear the reasoning behind the outlooks that they issue. Finally, being able to hear the importance of hand analysis and satellite observation was really good for the newer chasers. Once again, a big thank you is needed for the guys down at SPC.
We then decided to go to the Oklahoma panhandle; Guymon, on the off chance that there could be enough moisture return in the region to have some convection in the overnight hours. This thought did not pan out, but this allowed for the movement northward on Day III. EMWIN is still a tool that has bugs and is highly dependent on the transmitters in the region.
Day III - Tuesday, May 19thAfter a great night at Guymon, OK, SPC was calling for no severe storms for today but the local forecast discussions were forecasting a 20% chance for storms in southern KS and a 50% chance of storms from Hill City, KS eastward to Russell, KS. We headed north due to the high capping in TX and areas south of Guymon. Some Moisture has returned to the area with dew points in the upper 40's. Winds are out of the SSE and will be gusting over 20 mph today. A lee low is also starting to develop in eastern CO. While most of the dynamic forces will be in the Dakotas for storms, there could be some storms in North-Central KS. Helicity values are in the 300 range. Convective initiation could happen where the low-level jet and the boundary come together. Looking for possible MCC to develop later today. A trough is developing in the western US, and storms could develop with a little dryline action on Thursday. As we left Guymon, we noticed ACUS clouds to the south, which could show a tongue of moisture trying to return from the south. We are looking for the trough to come in and are hoping that convection will happen later in the week. Looks like we will be in the western KS, eastern CO, TX and OK panhandle areas for a few days.
The main concern for development in the forecast region is moisture. Without the moisture in place, it will be very difficult to get sustained convective activity. As we headed northward out of Guymon, OK toward the McCook, NE area, the dew points rose slowly into the lower 50's. This would eventually allow for some multicelluar convection. This convection rapidly developed and went severe. The main threat from these multicells was high winds, and large hail. As warnings for the three cells came across the radio, the storms were said to contain 90 mph winds, and 1 inch hail. Upon interception 9 miles north of Colby, KS, max recorded wind speed was 58 kts at 6:30 pm CDT, no hail was observed.
The extended outlooks are looking toward a potentially large outbreak of supercells over the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma later this week. This is due to the vast amount of return flow of moisture, and the ejection of a shortwave out of the southwest. The convective activity will be focused by the development of a dryline from eastern Colorado southward into New Mexico. If you like extremely high winds, today was the day for you.
Day IV - Wednesday, May 20thThe SPC outlook has a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms in southern Kansas, most of western Oklahoma into the Texas panhandle and the eastern portions of New Mexico and Colorado. The outlook today is hinting at tornadoes. However, the primary threat from these storms will be large hail and high winds as the isolated supercells rapidly develop into a squall line. Our movement today will be toward the Woodward, OK area. This is the region in which the larger shear values will be found, and the most instability should be present. We are expecting convective initiation to take place near the triple point with a dryline to the west and a cold front sagging to the south. If interception of tornadoes is possible, it must take place early in the supercell life cycle. Dew points are relatively consistent in the lower 60's. Moderate Risk issued for parts of Western OK and the Eastern TX panhandle.
At 3:05 pm CDT, a tornado watch was issued for the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. This watch also extended northward into far southern Kansas. At the time the watch was issued, the chase team was positioned outside the town of Adrian, OK. This position put us in the watch area and in the experimental progs' higher risk area. About 4:00 pm CDT, we received a call from Tim back in the VU weather center. There was a storm beginning to form in the Pampa, TX area. This storm looked the most impressive in nature. The chase was on.
During interception, numerous tornado warnings were issued for this storm. At we moved south to pick up 40 toward McLean. Most impressive interception was near Hedley where a rather ominous wall cloud was observed. The video shot will show if there was indeed any tornadic activity. I am severely under-playing the magnitude of this storm. It was extremely impressive. A local news-station - Channel 10 news, had wonderful video and lost their windshield to the baseball to softball size hail from this storm. This was the last day WHES, the news crew, was with us. In the short amount of time that they were with us, I believe we did them well by getting them to a few severe weather events. This was a really nice job by all, and I feel that we represented the university well.
Day V - Thursday, May 21stWell, after spending the night in Vega, TX, the latest day 1 outlook has a SLGT risk right where we are currently staying. Once again moisture looks to be a key feature of our concern. With the convection yesterday, the moisture was marginally reduced. The moisture return should be sufficent if the winds in the area would obtain a more southerly component. Right now winds are out of the E/NE. Surface heating will NOT be a problem at all. There is not a cloud in he sky. The primary threat will be hail and winds. It has been decided to head toward Colvis, NM, where upslope flow will be the primary forcing of convection. On a scale of 0 - 5 for anticipation of severe weather today; the vast majority of the team are looking for something in the 2 to 3 range. Whatever happens, we have lots of down time today with the estimated travel time under three hours.
Stopped in Portalas, NM for lunch. Went outside of the city and sat for a hour. Moved south to Lovelond because CAPE values were to be in the 3500-4000 J/KG range. The CU field was present and showed a lot of instability in the area. Later in the day, CAPE values in our area were found to be in the 5000 vicinity. Supercells were forming in the Big Bend area of TX and were moving NE toward Lovelond, which we observed by the dissipation of the CU field. However it would take over 3-4 hours to reach us. We were going to wait until 7:30 pm CDT before we decide whether to bag it or not. We saw a multicell form and the whole life cycle of it. We could not determine what caused the storm to develop. However, the idea was that there was a boundary of some sort because a line of clouds was seen. We did get some good pictures of a sunset. Mainly, because we weren't sure whether we were going to see lightning.
Day VI - Friday, May 22ndThe stay in Hereford was good. Over the night-time hours, some rain fell over the area. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather for northeastern CO, most of northern KS, SE WY, and western NE this morning. A lee-low is forming in CO with a cold front and dryline near the triple point in the northeastern part of the state. A northwest jet is present over Nebraska and northeastern CO, and NW-NC KS. A southeasterly LLJ is progged to form over KS and southern NE. LI's were forecasted to be in the -4 to -7 range near northwestern KS and northeastern CO and southwestern NE. There could be some supercells at time of initiation due to the shear between the upper level flow(NW) and the LLJ(SE). CAPE values are progged to be in the 2,000 range in the region also. The thinking is that when the cap breaks storms will fire and possibly developing into supercells. SPC experimental progs are giving us a 5% chance for tornadoes, but we think because of shear there could be more of a chance. There is a 15% chance of severe hail for NW KS and SW NE with an 5% chance around that. Forecast discussions were calling for possible supercells and other storms to form into a MCS. Our plain of attack is to go to the Burlinton, CO area. However, as we are heading north we noticed a wind shift and a possible dryline. No mention of a dryline was in any of the forecast discussions this morning.
After receiving new data, we continued to go on to Burlington. CAPE values looked to be about 3000 in northeastern CO. The moist tongue will intersect the dry air in the target region near Wray, CO. Cell movement will be southeast with supercells moving southwest possibly. Hoping that cell initiation will occur around 4 pm CDT.
Made a brief stop for lunch in Burlington and then went slightly south of the city to watch for the storms to fire. Noticed a rain free base as we were sitting there.
Decided to move north on US 385 and then head east. After Bears Cage had some car trouble and noticing that there was a wind shift north of the city to the north, we decided to move east on I-70. Storms were developing right over our heads as we moved east. Storms continued to form over our heads as well as to the SW and NE as the squall line was forming. Several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for eastern CO and NW KS. Kit Carson County in CO was the first. We exited on KS State-route 27 and headed south as the storm was intensifying. We observed ARCUS clouds with the storm as it bowed out. Rain and hail appeared to be heading our direction as well as 70 knot winds. The decision was to continue to move south to try to avoid the hail. As we headed south a spotter sited a tornado on the ground 6 miles NW of Colby KS. A Tornado warning was issued at 4:45 CDT for Thomas County in KS. The storm was moving east at 20 mph. Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for Wallace, Sheridan, Logan in KS and Yuma, Cheyenne CO showing that a line was forming. A separate storm was forming behind the line in Kit Carson County, CO which had a Tornado warning for it also. The line was moving SE as well as the Kit Carson storm. The decision was made to head south following the line to Liberal to try to see some lightning. In result, we shot some outstanding lightning pictures.
There was no cap what so ever. Storms just formed right after one another.
Day VII - Saturday, May 23rdStayed in Liberal, KS last night. Saw a good lightning show as we drove to the motel. SPC has a slight risk for eastern NM and the Big Bend region of TX. Morning ob: 64/56 wind from NE. The decision was to move south to the Hobbs region in SE NM to see upslope storms. CAPE values were proged to be in the 1500 J/KG range. Mid-level wind speed is not great. The cold front that passed through last night was proged to stay north of Hobbs triggering additional storms. It does not look that great today. However the European Model is forecasting a 50% chance of supercells in the Portalas, NM area for tomarrow. A wave is proged to move into NV and cause the trigger for the storms. The CAPE values are proged to be in the 3000 range. LI's for today are proged to be in the -2 to -4 range. Tomorrow LI's are proged to be in the -6 range. It looks like we will stay in Hobbs for a couple days and then sit and wait for storms. Tomorrow looks great for severe weather and possible supercells.
Stopped at Planeview, TX for lunch.
Some dust devils were seen on our trip to Hobbs. The temperature has increased quite rapidly as we have been heading south. Ob at 4:25 CDT: 89/53 wind still from northeast. The day 2 is still calling for good chances of severe weather tomorrow with upslope and the wave kicking out of the Rockies being the main trigger. Ob at 4:40 CDT: 90/50. Really dry. However the wind is still out of the ENE.
After leaving all the clothes in the hotel we headed west on 60 to try to get one of the storms that was building. Toilet was reading about 80-90 strikes per minute. We head further west and we turn toilet off because of the large amount of CG. We drove through a hail shaft that was producing marble size hail. Drove through the hail shaft again because we wanted to turn around and pick up some hail. We then decided to pull over on the highway to ride out the hail one last time. While doing so, we attempted to take some good lightning pictures and shot some video. Davis took the hail hard. The dew point reading was off. We were reading a dew point of -38. We did a lot of driving today, however, we did manage to position ourselves in a location of no wx-watches but still got to see the only storm to deserve a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in the area. The model forecasts for tomorrow are looking similar to today's convection, so we're expecting about the same here around Hobbs. So, we're sticking around here.
Day VIII - Sunday, May 24thNot much happened today. We woke up to computer problems. Getting online from the Best Western just wasn't gonna happen. However, model data that was received from the night before, was forecasting things to happen again around the Hobbs area. The cut-off low to the SW was kicking out another upper air disturbance into the region with another lee low to develop over the western plains. We decided we would just stick it out here at the hotel until something happened. We kept the TV's tuned to TWC to monitor the radar. Our atmosphere was marginally unstable, so in result, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued to our north, and as storms started to build to our west, finally, a Tornado Watch was issued for our region. Bachman's car had a little problem, when the starter went out, but as soon as he got back, we decided to wait a while until the storms moved a little closer. By the time the storms got to our location, it had started to get dark, so some of us decided to come back to the hotel, while some went out to shoot some lightning video. Bachman got a real nice picture on his digital camera of a lightning strike to our southwest. So, even though we didn't actually do any "chasing" today, we were still able to see something. Now, we are all looking forward to the loong ride home tomorrow. That's a joke, in case you're wondering.
Day IX - Monday, May 25thNot a whole to write about anymore. We managed to get out of Hobbs this morning and on the road by 8:30 CDT. With a couple of stops along the way, we made it to Springfield, MO a little after 11:00 pm CDT. We're in the hotel now, figuring out when to pull out tomorrow. We're thinking around 8:30 to make it home by noon. It'll be nice to get home. Living out of a suitcase does get old after a little while.
Day X - Tuesday, May 26thThe team all got on the road this morning by 9:00, so we all are a little tired. By the way I take it, everyone seems to have had a wonderful time and in some ways I bet some of us don't want to go home, while others do. We stopped in Effingham, IL before busting through into Indiana to get gas and something to eat. We stopped to top of our gas tanks before we drove into the parking lot here at VU. It was around 6:30 pm when we pulled in. We're all getting everything taken down to the lab, to have ready for Chase #6b. Good luck to them. As far as our chase goes, a big thanks goes out to everyone that accompanied this trip. We had a successful trip in intercepting several storms. We didn't get to see a tornado, but that isn't the most important thing in doing these 'Convective Field Studies.' The most important thing is just going out there and experiencing the environs that surround the severe weather that we all love. Like is said time and time again, you can't just look at a screen and say, "Ah, that's what its like." No, you have to get out there and experience it. Thanks to everybody - thanks to our friends down in Louisville, KY (WHES), and thanks to Bart for giving us the opportunity to learn this stuff out there in the field!